Bauxite Imports Exceed 20 Million mt in April, Spot Transaction Prices of Alumina Continue to Rise [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on May 21

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at 3,130 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,130 yuan/mt, a low of 3,079 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,111 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt or 0.65%, with open interest at 351,000 lots.

Alumina Spot: On Tuesday, inquiries revealed that 2,000 mt of alumina was traded in Guizhou at a transaction price of 3,150 yuan/mt, and 10,000 mt of alumina was traded in Shanxi at a transaction price of 3,200 yuan/mt.

Ore: As of May 20, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $71.09/mt, up $0.36/mt from the previous trading day. This was mainly due to supply disruptions in Guinea's bauxite, leading to a significant increase in some market offers compared to the previous period, driving a rebound in the SMM imported bauxite index. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was reported at $65/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Industry Dynamics:

1. Bauxite Imports: According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in April 2025, China imported 20.684 million mt of bauxite, up 25.62% MoM and 45.44% YoY. By country, imports from Guinea were 16.732 million mt, up 28.72% MoM and 59.62% YoY; imports from Australia were 2.68 million mt, up 5.7% MoM and down 14.41% YoY; and total imports of non-mainstream bauxite were 1.272 million mt. From January to April 2025, China imported a cumulative 67.77 million mt of bauxite, up 34.3% YoY. By country, cumulative imports from Guinea were 53.12 million mt, accounting for 78.38% of total imports, up 42.2% YoY; cumulative imports from Australia were 10.5 million mt, accounting for 15.49% of total imports, down 5.4% YoY; and cumulative imports of non-mainstream bauxite were 4.15 million mt, accounting for 6.12% of total imports, up 109% compared to the same period in 2024.
2. Alumina Imports and Exports: According to Chinese customs data, in April 2025, China exported 262,900 mt of alumina, up 101.6% YoY; imported 10,700 mt of alumina, down 90.1% YoY; and had a net import of -252,200 mt of alumina in April. From January to April 2025, China imported a cumulative 99,500 mt of alumina, down 90.6% YoY; exported a cumulative 964,500 mt of alumina, up 74.7% YoY; and had a cumulative net import of -865,000 mt of alumina.
3. Primary Aluminum Imports and Exports: According to customs data, in April 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports were approximately 250,500 mt, up 12.8% MoM and 14.6% YoY. From January to April, the total cumulative imports of primary aluminum in China reached approximately 634,300 mt, down 11.2% YoY. In April 2025, China's primary aluminum exports amounted to around 13,700 mt, up 54.6% MoM and 643.0% YoY. From January to April, the total cumulative exports of primary aluminum were approximately 34,500 mt, showing a year-on-year increase of about 139.6%. In April 2025, China's net imports of primary aluminum were 236,800 mt, up 11.1% MoM and 14.8% YoY. From January to April, the cumulative net imports of primary aluminum in China were approximately 799,800 mt, down 13.6% YoY.

Daily Basis Report: According to SMM data, on May 20, the SMM alumina index was at a discount of 103.31 yuan/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 a.m.

Warrant Daily Report: On May 20, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 5,409 mt from the previous trading day to 190,300 mt. In Shandong, the total registered volume of alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 601 mt. In Henan, it also remained unchanged at 3,001 mt. In Guangxi, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 2,402 mt from the previous trading day to 10,200 mt. In Gansu, it remained unchanged at 6,306 mt. In Xinjiang, the total registered volume of alumina warrants decreased by 3,007 mt from the previous trading day to 170,200 mt.

Overseas Market: As of May 20, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.50/mt. The selling price of the USD/CNY exchange rate was around 7.24. This price translates to approximately 3,283 yuan/mt for the external selling price at major domestic ports, which is 248 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed.

Summary: Last week, maintenance and production cuts were concentrated among alumina enterprises in south China, with operating capacity decreasing by 2.9 million mt/year on a MoM basis, further tightening spot cargo availability. Additionally, alumina enterprises have been facing continuous losses in recent months, with strong intentions to refuse to budge on prices. Coupled with maintenance and production cuts, the tightening of spot cargo availability led to a significant rebound in spot prices. Last Friday, due to the revocation of mining rights for some enterprises in Guinea, some currently operating enterprises received notices of production suspension. This week, some miners declared force majeure to shipping companies. The specific impact of this incident on Guinea's bauxite supply remains to be assessed. In the short term, it may provide sentiment-based support for bauxite prices, thereby offering cost support for alumina. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in the operating capacity of alumina refineries, as well as the shipment volume of Guinea's bauxite from the raw material side and the dynamics of related enterprises.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]